Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.562386 8.941098 10.460992 12.255475 14.310601 16.584904 19.286249
2025-02-02 5.720991 7.551447 9.760444 12.600191 16.129161 20.343878 25.729130
2025-02-09 4.638261 6.712612 9.409621 13.122336 18.041891 24.271984 32.682583
2025-02-16 3.708016 5.829938 8.777645 13.084699 19.113321 27.132766 38.462545
2025-02-23 2.924248 4.970304 7.992966 12.656445 19.512984 29.038813 43.041032
2025-03-02 2.312158 4.233715 7.242217 12.124351 19.632490 30.480503 46.999789
2025-03-09 1.951283 3.820077 6.900918 12.126424 20.480638 32.961275 52.542112
2025-03-16 1.670682 3.485273 6.625453 12.174507 21.367027 35.522308 58.333499
2025-03-23 1.429531 3.173139 6.335408 12.146568 22.101737 37.871467 63.923321
2025-03-30 1.167718 2.769077 5.820560 11.661216 22.018236 38.904473 67.509878
2025-04-06 1.011925 2.546012 5.600324 11.658710 22.727920 41.227738 73.244269
2025-04-13 0.870684 2.324970 5.349539 11.563240 23.251794 43.259642 78.604356
2025-04-20 0.816872 2.293461 5.478385 12.214104 25.190570 47.839247 88.518653
2025-04-27 0.753775 2.228416 5.529642 12.719079 26.904984 52.148926 98.241460
2025-05-04 0.702877 2.183030 5.615442 13.299238 28.802278 56.889273 108.955504
2025-05-11 0.614139 2.021343 5.421362 13.278338 29.540363 59.609382 116.313018
2025-05-18 0.512514 1.800317 5.056981 12.849927 29.433507 60.780237 120.991557
2025-05-25 0.421124 1.583873 4.666698 12.312420 29.048036 61.392637 124.677314
2025-06-01 0.370502 1.476137 4.525523 12.315047 29.763428 64.099768 132.290579
2025-06-08 0.328442 1.384529 4.410859 12.363945 30.574777 67.029508 140.452267
2025-06-15 0.288591 1.289366 4.271319 12.335684 31.213046 69.651702 148.157915
2025-06-22 0.237911 1.140528 3.958730 11.843793 30.786380 70.133848 151.810633
2025-06-29 0.209939 1.066846 3.846628 11.841259 31.451332 72.838179 159.862868